Thomas Wilkins 's articles

Economy: Justin Lin;Qin Xiao; China Model; growth
Is China's Old Growth Model Sustainable: a Big Bull vs. a Big Bear
Whereas Lin is a "growth bull," whose model is built on constant growth rates, Qin's analysis focuses more on the issues facing the new Chinese leaders and places more importance on the private sector being the driving force in the future rather than on a "government dominated economy" from the past.
January 25th,2013
Money & Investing: QE2;FOMC
2:15 PM ,Washington Time,the QE2 Moment
This increased liquidity is expected to show up more in financial markets, especially bonds, gold, silver and stocks than in new loans which are one supposedly objective for improving the economy.
November 3rd,2010
Currency: yuan appreciation;Zhou Xiaochuan;PBOC;peg
Are There Advantages to Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's Dollar-Peg Exit?
Perhaps, what Governor Zhou is really saying is that China's policy needs to shift from favoring an increase in its foreign exchange reserves to increasing the purchasing power of it currency.
March 10th,2010
Money & Investing:
Duoyuan Global Water up 140% since Summer IPO and Growth Continues
November 17th,2009
Money & Investing:
Duoyuan Global Water's Shares Explode in the U.S.
The water stimulus program is expected to last 3 years.
August 4th,2009
The "New" Equilibrium from the U.S.-China S&ED
The U.S. delegation stressed to the Chinese that there has been a fundamental change in the U.S. economy. The recovery will be different this time from what the Chinese have seen in the past.
August 4th,2009
Money & Investing:
U.S.-China Climate Cooperation Bullish New Energy Stocks?
One driving force behind the rally of SunTech Power is the perceived notion that China and the U.S. will find away to agree on carbon emissions.
July 31st,2009
Current Review:
Green Shoots Emerging from " New" US-China Diplomacy
The design of the Obama administration's "new" diplomacy towards China is anchored on reduced confrontation, improved communications, "uncle/guanxi" feelings which build "relationships" rather than "contacts," and a positive mental attitude.
July 30th,2009
Current Review:
Wang to Geithner: I Could Be Your Uncle
Vice Premier Wang's dramatic expression drove home the following message: US Secretary Geithner and I have a personal relationship ("guanxi") which distinguishes success from failure.
July 29th,2009
Current Review:
S&ED: "New Diplomacy in Washington"
Nowhere is the U.S. new diplomacy towards China more transparent than the opening ceremonies yesterday which resemble a fraternity rush event, wooing the skeptical to join the team.
July 29th,2009
Bernanke's Outlook: Because I Said So
July 23rd,2009
Economy: Bernanke,Summers,Fed,Obama,Bernanke
What if Mr. Bernanke "Retires" Early as Chairman of The Fed?
If Mr. Benjamin Bernanke should "retire" as Chairman of The Fed when his term expires January 31, 2010, there are three important issues affecting China.
July 14th,2009
Money & Investing:
New Foreign Private Equity Demand for Chinese Companies
What is significant is that the world's supposedly largest private equity firm believes that the US$ 1 billion subscription supports improving investor sentiment towards China.
July 4th,2009
Money & Investing:
Reignite the IPO Market for Chinese Firms.
The Chinese Initial Public Offering (IPO) market has revived after a long hibernation caused by the financial crisis, declining markets worldwide, and restrictions from regulators. All these forces crushed the IPO market. But a revival is now seen in New York, China, and London.
June 29th,2009
Money & Investing:
Top Ten Stocks Bet on Underrated Chinese Consumers
China Region Fund has its top 10 equity holdings in Ping An Insurance, China Overseas Land & Investment, Anhui Conch Cement, Tencent Holdings, Zhaojin Mining Industry, China Merchants Bank, Hengan International Group, CNOOC, China Communications Construction and China Dongxiang Group.
June 27th,2009
The Trade Offs from US-EU WTO Card against China
The US must not antagonize its largest investor in government debt, essential for the Obama rescue plan.
June 24th,2009
Technologies: China Unicom,iPhone,Apple
Apple's Slow Boat to China Gains Speed as iPhone Gains Block-Buster Consumer Acceptance
Eventually, the momentum of robust sales should push a China telecom into the arms of Apple.
June 23rd,2009
Finance & Banking:
Biggest Shake Up of the US Financial System by President Obama Since the 1930s
The historically significant plan will have at its center piece a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency in order to fulfill President Obama's identification with protection against questionable financial products.
June 17th,2009
US Special Envoy for Climate Change: The Quintessimal Optimist
While there is a long list of skeptics, one thing is clear. President Obama appears strongly committed to climate change.
June 16th,2009
Obama's Green Dream Team Faces China's Lead Climate Negotiator
"China cannot avoid an overall cap on carbon emissions indefinitely, but it is not in a position realistically to accept a cap at Copenhagen,"
June 5th,2009
Current Review:
Pelosi's "Historic" Trip to China
Known for unfurling years ago a banner in Tiananmen Square in memory of protestors, she felt this time that she could better get the attention of the Chinese policy makers with this bill in her traveling bag than by waving a clean energy banner in Beijing.
June 3rd,2009
Kirk on China: A Diplomat Rather Than A Fire Brand Ideologist
Kirk is not as smart and feisty as former US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, and therefore less dangerous."
June 3rd,2009
As GM Filing for Bankruptcy, Geithner Sounds Optimistic in Beijing
"What is bad for General Motors is bad for America?"
June 1st,2009
Current Review:
The Mutation of the China-US Strategic "Economic" Dialogue
The date of this year's China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue has not been officially announced but may take place during the last week of July in Washington, according to sources familiar with scheduling, who spoke to ChinaStakes on conditions of confidentiality.
May 28th,2009
China's "Grand Strategy" for Africa
China's grand strategy for Africa is a combination of political and economic motivations, but as Tanzania's first President, Jules Nyerere said of his China-similar collectivization of agricultural "I failed. Let's admit it."
May 27th,2009
Current Review:
The US Should Applaud, Not Fear, Chinese Destroyers in the Horn of Africa
The deployment of the Chinese Navy in the Horn of Africa does not represent a power grab in Africa but merely reflects China's cooperation with a multinational constellation of naval vessels in order to combat piracy.
May 23rd,2009
Current Review:
Will Jon Huntsman to China Be a Messenger or Mover and Shaker?
Governor Huntsman's nomination must be confirmed by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It is chaired by an opponent of the Kyoto Treaty on global warming without greenhouse gas emissions limits on China, Senator John Kerry. He was a 2004 opponent against former President George Bush in the 2004 presidential campaign and once labeled the Chinese government as "currency predators."
May 17th,2009
Current Review:
Alarm Bells Sounded in Washington Over China's Rising "Soft Power"
Xinhua News Service expects to increase its overseas bureaus from 100 to 186 and to spend 45 billion yuan to expand its foreign language news coverage.
May 7th,2009
Roubini Doesn't Stop Growling Like a Bear
The setbacks in consumer spending will most likely be over powered by federal spending.
May 5th,2009
RMB Convertibility Expected When Shanghai Becomes a Global Financial Center As Approved by the State Council
April 26th,2009
Coca-Cola Emphatically Denies Human Rights Violations in Its China Businesses
Mr. Harrington's argument relates to ensuring that companies take steps to support U.S. economic interests. He may one day end up having an effect on China. But since he only got 4% of the vote at the Coca-Cola meeting today in Georgia, any negative effect on China is a long way off.
April 24th,2009
Governor Zhou's Recipe for Peking Roast Duck
Global economic conditions give power to savers. As a result the "manipulation" accusation is a dead duck, cooked quietly and diplomatically using a Peking Roast Duck recipe.
April 19th,2009
China Currency Report Expected Less Gentle from Geithner
Will President Obama stand by his endorsement when he was a senator of the Fair Currency Act? How can the Obama administration expect the Chinese to keep buying US Treasury bonds and not have right to stabilize the currency market which could be a Waterloo for China if it allowed free market forces to operate? The answers to these questions should be answered imminently.
April 12nd,2009
Money & Investing:
New Foreign Institutional Demand for China A-Shares
April 8th,2009
He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules
He has captured the attention of the world, especially the US stock market which does not know how far China will push on this white paper at the London G-20 meeting. Does he want to downgrade the US dollar from the international monetary system? Can he really have a reserve asset which is stable? Can he really have a flexible asset that can expand when needed without expanding too much? Can he really get other nations to walk away from "credit-based" national currencies as reserves?
March 31st,2009
Current Review:
Pessimism Erupted in Washington Days Before Obama Meets Hu in London
March 25th,2009
SED Is Dead As China's US Bonds Have Their Greatest Rally in 21 Years
Chinese leaders in Beijing can sleep well. Their US bond portfolio staged the greatest one day rally in 21 years. The shouting match about the weak bond market and currency manipulators is now dead for the time being.
March 19th,2009
Current Review:
Mrs. Hillary Clinton Reprioritizes US-China Relations
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's forthcoming arrival in Beijing ironically confirms that the Strategic Economic Dialogue, long championed by Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson has taken a back seat. It is ironic because the economic crisis has mushroomed.
February 18th,2009
Norinco Comes to Georgia to Increase US Trade
Norinco, the multi-billion dollar Chinese State Firm, which suffered trade sanctions under the Carter and Bush Administrations, has come to the home of Martin Luther King in order to patch up its problems with the US.
February 16th,2009
The First Blast from Obama's "Speaker's-Corner" Cabinet
U.S. Secretary of Treasury, Timothy Geithner, has sounded the first deafening trumpet blast to China, calling the country a "currency manipulator." Following the diagnosis of Obama's cabinet along a model of "London's Hyde Park Speaker's Corner," can we expect to hear a softer note, maybe even issued privately? For details about the "Speaker's-Corner" model, see ChinaStakes January 2nd article: "Obama's Speaker's Corner Cabinet Yin Yang." The question at hand is whether another Obama cabinet member will offer an alternative view?
February 3rd,2009
Finance & Banking:
9/11 Caused the US Financial Crisis, Not a "Saving Glut" in China
The "saving glut" story acquired a new proponent and advanced to a higher level as US Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson recently confided in an interview interpreted by the Financial Times of London
January 9th,2009
Current Review:
Obama's Speaker's-Corner Cabinet Yin Yang
President-elect Obama will have a "Speaker's-Corner" cabinet in the White House! This statement will be perfectly clear to Chinese companies which prefer London to New York City for their global offices (see ChinaStakes June 19, 2008). London is home of Hyde Park and its famous Speaker's Corner, where anyone can stand on a box and shout at the world. This analogy is not trivial as such is the way that president-elect Obama's cabinet will communicate with China
January 2nd,2009
The 'Liquidity Trap' Could Happen
In the very near future, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System could instruct the Open Market Committee in New York to target Federal Funds to a rate close to zero per cent. Such a position will be bullish for China's positions in U.S. government bonds.
December 17th,2008
Chinese Interest Rates to Tumble Due to 533,000 Jo
The shocking loss of 533,000 jobs in one month in America, which is a historical number, should influence the path of Chinese interest rates as long as China does not follow the reserve currency path with complete convertibility.
December 8th,2008
Japanese-Type Monetary Policy Haunts Strategic Eco
Japanese monetary policy reminiscent of the zero interest rate environment of recent past haunts the forthcoming meeting of the Strategic Economic Dialogue in Beijing.
December 3rd,2008
As Inflation Passes Away, China Becomes a Big Winn
As China chooses the US Dollar as its reserve currency, the passing away of inflation is a major benefit to China. Long criticized by dollar critics, China is now looking like a real winner as its US bond investments increase in value and purchasing power. Yes, the passing away of inflation is a big boost to China!
November 30th,2008
The Zhou-Geithner Connection
The special relationship held by Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China, former President of China Construction Bank and former Assistant Minister of Foreign Trade, with the Group of Thirty may hold important insights into China's rising role in international monetary affairs.
November 23rd,2008
Current Review:
At the G20 Summit, What Will China Gain and Contribute?
China's economic strategy is in the middle of the philosophies of free markets and central planning. While its economy is slowing down from more rapid pace, its current pace is positive, not negative as several other types of markets point to. This is an ideal time for hardliners from both free markets and central planning persuasion to ponder inwardly China's success in giving government a vital role to make markets work better
November 12nd,2008
The U.S. Financial Crisis Made In America, Not In China
In sum, China can (1.) play a role in helping the U.S. cope with its crisis , (2.) can contribute to the world's economic and financial stability, and (3) China did not cause the crisis which was clearly made in the U.S., not in China.
October 26th,2008
China a "White Knight" in Shining Armor for the U.S
Who then can persuade against the arguments of Chinese financial isolation? Henry Paulson got his knees when pleading with Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi to accept EESA. Secretary Paulson has negotiating skills. If any person can close on a deal where China is a "white knight" in shining armor surely that person is Henry Paulson, the "George Washington" of the 21st century.
October 12nd,2008
Current Review: Beijing Olympic
The "Major Sponsor" of Olympics Sees a Chinese Leap Forward in Soft Drinks Consumption
The "major sponsor" of the 2008 Olympic Games and the oldest sponsor since 1928 believes carbonated soft drink consumption in China will rise to 150 eight ounce serving per capita each year, said Neville Isdell, Chairman and CEO of the Coca-Cola Company in an interview with CNBC television in New York.
August 10th,2008
U.S.-China Air Traffic Faces Head Winds
Only a few months ago, U.S. airlines were hungering for the China market, especially during the Olympic games. Whereas "Open Skies" is still a dream for many travelers who want economic benefits from air competition, financial realities and the impending slowdown after the Olympics suggest that U.S.-China air travel is facing head winds and reduced expectations for increased competition.
July 20th,2008
RMB's Inconvertibility Still an Impediment for Investments
At the moment, renminbi foreign exchange contracts traded in Chicago are termed "non-deliverable". While this type of operation is supported technically speaking in Chicago as well as the Singapore Foreign Exchange Market Committee, The Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market Committee and the Treasury Markets Forum of Hong Kong, the bottom line is that "non-deliverability" does not allow the "invisible hand" to work.
June 29th,2008
Media Exposure to Make China's SWF More Amicable to U.S. Public and Politicians?
There is no evidence that China's sovereign wealth fund has become more acceptable to the U.S. media and public. There is overwhelming evidence that the public is wary about foreign government having large investments in American businesses.
May 11st,2008
What If a Chinese SOE Offer to Buy a US Company Again?
For many years, China was ranked the number one destination for foreign domestic investment. Now the cash flow could reverse from an inward bound journey to an outward bound one. Take for example; the state-owned Aluminum Corporation of China joining Alcoa in a surprised 12 percent purchase of Rio Tinto. China is concerned that the combining Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton would create a monopoly and could cause a disruptive interference with China's iron ore needs. But what if the transaction were a Chinese State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) offering to buy an American firm? How would U.S. regulators feel about this? What rules would be invoked?
April 19th,2008
Money & Investing:
A Code of Conduct for Sovereign Wealth Fund "Stupid" Says CIC
The transfer of economic power in the global financial markets has strengthened the hand of China Investment Corporation's (CIC) president as he calmly rejected the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) call for a "code of conduct" for Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF). Such was the unquestionable theme of a first-ever, go-public initiative by CIC, occurring on prime-time, American television during an exclusive interview in Beijing with Gao Xiqing, president of CIC.
April 8th,2008
China and US to Benefit from "Open Skies"
"Open Skies" agreements gives both countries unrestricted landing rights and makes obsolete the granting a fixed number of flights per week to a fixed destination. There are "Open Skies" agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, but China has no such agreement with the US.
April 2nd,2008
Money & Investing:
Sovereign Wealth Funds and US Financial Market Circles
This data was to show you the relative strength of investments of foreign governments. They have the potential of buying a huge portion of our largest companies.
February 12nd,2008
How The Big Bang in U.S. Monetary Policy Should Influence China's Easing of Bank Credit
Since China has a peg of a sort to the U.S. dollar, then it is likely that the U.S. monetary policy of ease will become the monetary policy of the Chinese authorities. As long as the Chinese hold dollars in their foreign reserves, then China capital is really part of America's monetary capital which is influenced by American policies.
February 12nd,2008
Economy: weak US economy and strong China currency
The Slower US Growth, the More Pressure on a Stronger Yuan
Hank Paulson foresees signs of slower growth surfacing in the coming "weeks and months ahead."
January 9th,2008
M&A: the limit of soverign wealth funds might
Can China Continue Its Sterilization Program?
So China Investment Corporation….pick your equity investments carefully!
December 20th,2007
Money & Investing: through train
A Through Train Derailed?
The answer is: the through train is most likely to cross the border and not be derailed.
December 10th,2007