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Flawed analysis! Do you think J.Aron didn't hedge their risk? Do you think they kept this on their books? I highly doubt that. SSC could have gone to other investment banks and asked their prices on this same contract. It a pretty simply contract and other banks would know how to price it. Also, Goldman's research department has been wrong more times than it has been right. They predicted oil would go to $200/barrel. You give to much value in their ability to influence prices and predict the future. This is such small money to Goldman they probably wish that they would have lost money on this contract and not had this much bad publicity. They probably hedged the contract right away through the spot/forward markets and just made the spread. As you stated "have the demand for this hedging" a lot of companies have the demand for this type of customized product. Goldman was just satisfying the demand in a customized way. The fact that the client lost money on the contract probably makes Goldman feel bad- they want recurring business not one-off business.

Posted by TXCap on

This article is an interesting speculation. Maybe it looks like a gambling derivative or from other perception it is straight business just like any other investing option. Whatever it maybe. SSC and others should do their homework before investing so much. I am sure Goldman Sachs and their research team has done their analysis and prediction before approaching clients.

Posted by AD on
I just have one question - Do 1.3 billion Chinese have any opinion or can they choose the leaders in the near future?

Posted by Venkat on
Who give a fuck what you people think, its either Mr. Verma (of India) or Mr. Chen Xiaochen (of China, the writer of this article), that people are going to read, care for and think from their point of view. Whatever I think, or YOU think is merely couple of litle paragraphs written on the internet somewhere. All I am saying is that if we are to base our assumptions about what India or China is about to do or what they should do based on what these two men think, we are throwing ourselves in the dark with only these two people shining lights upon us. So stop reading people of this kind, that provoke people, and dont let them decide the fate of these two great nation and billions of people.

Posted by Aman on

China has a large difference in its saying and doing. It is making all efforts to destabalise India. It is building up large Infra near arunachal long before we made countersteps of troops in the region ,giving military aid to PAK.Recent think tanks in China suggested dividing India into 28 countries. Now it's time for India to realise what is the real intention of Chinese... we must take counter measures to encircle the dragon (japan,taiwan,veitnam,Korea,Uyghur Muslims...help peace loving tibetians...etc).If you dare attack this time, we will break China to pieces, that's for sure.Thanks

Posted by Nagrajan tamil on

Dir Sir, Congratulations! If you Google for your latest article "Nervous China may attack India by 2012", you will find more than 7,000 web pages!

We have been talking about "potential threat number one" for ten years since George Fernandes. Now you are telling us the real thing will happen within three years. The world is shocked! To make your argument more convincing, I would like to offer the following humble suggestions just for your kind reference:

1. Your article begins with a clear statement that "China will launch an attack on India before 2012". You should use this as the title of the article rather than "Nervous China may attack India by 2012". You know that to say something "may happen" is quite different from that to say "will happen". I believe you are confident, but you also need to show you are serious and responsible. And it would be much better if you explain in a few words why the attack is set exactly before 2012 but not, say, before 2015?

2. According to your article, the first of the "multiple reasons" for China to attack India is the Chinese economy has been deadly affected by the world recession, which "is creating an unprecedented internal social unrest in China". But the Chinese leadership has declared that China's GDP growth in 2009 will be at 8%. It is worse that many economists in the world are also saying that China's target of 8% growth can be achieved. You should tell the world in a clear way that they are lying.

3. The second reason is external and "appears to be equally dismal": "Obama's policies wisely denies Beijing's international strategic space". But US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has declared that US-China relations are the most important bilateral relationship in the 21st century. Madam is visiting India. You should tell her that we don't like such nonsense.

4. The third reason is "the growing irrelevance of Pakistan is increasing the Chinese nervousness" and "a sinking Pakistan will team up with China to teach India 'the final lesson'". We can do nothing about that. But you should emphasize that "our enemy's friend is our enemy" is an eternal truth.

5. Please don't talk too much about the Indian "Civil Administration (has been) ceding control of 40 per cent of the Union's territory to the Maoists and 10 percent to other insurgents". Otherwise the Chinese would say that you are doing the same to "divert attention from the brewing internal dissent".

6. Please don't say again that the Communists firmly believe that "Chinese race is far superior to Nazi Germany". Germany is our democratic friend in the West and she has done nothing wrong as far as Indo-China relations are concerned. Otherwise people would say you are crazy.

7. I salute you memory. Yes, more than 50 years ago, in the Cold War time, Chairman Mao did say that "the east-wind should prevail over the west-wind". But now you don't need to poorly change it into "the east-wind to at least prevail over the other east-wind, i.e., India". You might not be aware that the Chinese once named India as the Western Heaven.

Dear Sir, if you follow these suggestions and modify your article, you will make an explosion in the Internet. Your magazine "Indian Defence Review" will be the best seller of the year and your financial situation will be improved in a big way.

By the way, your article revealed a top secret that "the Chinese covertly ordered their other proxy, North Korea, to conduct underground nuclear tests and carry out trials of missiles". You should have informed an intelligence agency to make a big money before making it public. Best wishes, Your friend

Posted by Your Friend on
As a broker/consultant in the supply of coal from Viet Nam to pan-Asian interests, I see continued demand for coal from Viet Nam especially to China as the demand remains relatively stable. chris.tingus@gmail.com

Posted by christopher tingus on
War and disputes dont help any nation's people or economy,there is a lot of similarity between cultures of the east and spirituality holds the nations together,i donot think governements of China and India are insensible to go to war-it could well be the opposite,individual reports dont matter. The problem facing by the first world countries is the growth of third world economies,it would only help them and not help the third world if these nations go to war,that they would want this to happen is also not true. Terrorism is the biggest threat,and the world wont let Indian and China go to war. Peace and prayers.

Posted by .AV. on
Mr Chen Xiaochen, Yes we know, who is aggressor and who not. You aggressively took control of Tibet, but never could win Tibetans, even when they always follow non-violence. In some cases, you malign them with your Chinese propaganda. You took control of East Turkestan, but you could not win the Uyghur Muslims in the forcefully occupied and so called Autonomous Region. You occupied part of Kashmir, in a tacit agreement with Pakistan. You are aggressor in every case. Even in case of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, you were the aggressor. You claim the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh,to be a part of China, which will remain a dream to you. China have already waged a war with India, but through its proxies, like pakistan. So Whatever Verma said, was very true, and we Indians need to make sure, we kick Chinese properly this time. But the day is not far, if you dare attack this time, we will break china to pieces. At best, both India and china will vanish from world map. Thanks

Posted by on
This is a good article. We need more awareness about the issue of neocolonialism. On one side this exploitation of Africa's resources is a positive thing because it will ultimately lead to more food production. The potential problem is that these African nations are too weak and unorganized to nationalize the farming and mining operations if China oversteps itself. A good article that expands on this issue can be found here: http://rorabaughsblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/neo-colonialism.html

Posted by Adam on
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